Nine years cycle

Super computers, weather prediction, fuzzy logic, valuation of events and the reality of randomness; what does it all mean? How far have we really come? Well we are done with El Nino and ready for LA Nina right? Not so fast. After all this El Nino was not inside the proper 9 year cycle right. Right, but why? Was it regarding to solar activity, solar flares, ionosphere thinning, Global Warming? Hmmm? This is very interesting my friends. We know that certain things can occur in any system, these "events occur" situations or known as by non-scholarly gentlemen like me "sh_t happens" type events can be figured into a program. These programs are quite powerful and take into consideration multiple trends simultaneously converging. Each event, each trend or event is then given a value number or probability rating and thus a lot of, a lot of points of your data set can be figured to give you the answer you seek?


Is such a system valid, can it predict weather? Yes, even so the folks who value such items or design such programs are not always correct in their programmed assumptions for the super computers to adequately calculate weather events, but they do get extremely close. To do so accurately we have to take into consideration such things a micro events or trends, which can alteration weather patterns so slightly that they are able to eventually alteration the whole to such a large degree that the big event predicted won't occur at all. This is true and though we have had weather folks and TV Media blow out of proportion storms for the simple fact they wanted higher ratings, it's possible that the best possible super computer may render irrelevant data based on faulty assumptions on valuations of mirco trends on the macro dominant trend.

Luckily we are learning lots about weather and collecting so a lot data that the predictions are becoming better. But simple long term predictions of will there be additional El Nino type year, where the Pacific ocean rises and heats up a couple of degrees above regular or will we see the trade winds and the Pineapple Express render itself back to the normality of what we have come to expect over years of farmer's almanac studies and data collection?

The Internet as a lot as w love information contains a high degree of conjecture, opinion, junk science, un proven theories and garbage. If you study textbooks, it's the same, with little value of reality or any relevant perception of truth. Even books like "What your History Teacher Never told you" is half questionable. The last really strong LA Nina was in 95-96 after a entirely fascinating Storm Watch 93-94 El Nino. As any qualified Naval Postgraduate Student or NOAA Research Professional will tell you the Atmosphere is extremely complicated.

The super computers and extensive new techniques in programming coupled with the funds for research, increasing use of Artificial Intelligence and the explosive growth of net worked sensors is getting us very approximately where we wish to be with weather prediction and fully understanding the 9-year cycles of El Nino.